万联证券：12月TV面板价格有望企稳 26年需求端转暖可期

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wanlian Securities indicates that LCD TV panel prices have seen an increase in November, with expectations for a stabilization in December, driven by upcoming sports events and a shift towards larger TV sizes [1][2][3]. Price Trends - In November, LCD TV panel prices increased, with small sizes rising by $0.5-1 and medium to large sizes by $2-3. Although the settlement price is expected to decline, the decrease is anticipated to be less severe compared to previous months, with 65-inch panels expected to drop by $2 and 75-inch panels by $3, both showing a reduction of $1 from October [2]. - Predictions suggest that December TV panel prices may stabilize, with non-strategic customers for medium to large sizes potentially seeing price increases of $1-2 [2]. Demand Drivers - Upcoming major sports events, such as the 2026 Winter Olympics and the World Cup, are expected to boost demand for panels, prompting downstream manufacturers to begin stocking up in advance, which will support LCD TV panel prices [3]. - The trend towards larger televisions continues, with a forecasted 6% year-on-year growth in global display panel area demand by 2026, despite a projected 2% growth in 2025 due to trade tensions [3]. Production and Operational Efficiency - As of October 2025, global shipments of large-sized LCD TV panels reached 20.6 million units, marking an 8% year-on-year increase, although a 4.8% decline was noted from September [4]. - LCD panel manufacturers have maintained high capacity utilization rates, with shipment volumes showing year-on-year growth of 5%-10% from July to October 2025. The depreciation period for 10.5-generation LCD factories is nearing its end, which is expected to alleviate operational pressures and support price stabilization strategies [4]. Investment Recommendations - Future LCD total shipments are expected to stabilize, with Chinese manufacturers holding nearly 70% of the global market share, thereby maintaining significant influence over the industry. The demand from upcoming sports events and the long-term trend towards larger TV panels are likely to enhance profitability across the industry [5]. - The competitive advantages of leading companies in terms of pricing power, product competitiveness, and scale are expected to become more pronounced, with improving profitability and cash flow as the depreciation of high-generation production lines comes to an end [5].