独家专访拉米：美国实质上已退出WTO，全球化路在何方？

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) appellate body has been "inactive" for nearly six years due to the United States' unilateral and protectionist measures, which have undermined the organization's principles and obstructed the appointment of appellate body members [2][3] Group 1: WTO's Current Situation - The WTO appellate body officially ceased operations on December 11, 2019, after over 20 years of functioning [2] - Pascal Lamy, former WTO Director-General, suggests that the WTO must adapt to new realities and continue to operate even without U.S. participation [2][3] - Lamy warns that avoiding large-scale wars and environmental degradation should be prioritized in the coming years, as 90% of the global population is affected by these crises [2] Group 2: Climate Change and Trade - Lamy emphasizes the need for a friendly trade environment to protect against the harmful effects of environmental degradation while utilizing Earth's resources more effectively [3][4] - There is a lack of consensus between developed and developing countries on addressing climate change, necessitating a platform to resolve North-South tensions [3] - Existing global agreements lack enforceable regulations, leading to fragmented actions that could escalate trade frictions [3][4] Group 3: Global Trade Regulations - Some global regulations have pointed the way to resolving trade disputes, but trade protectionism remains a significant barrier [4] - Lamy notes that developed countries often adopt avoidance strategies regarding climate issues, while some developing countries resist discussions that could lead to negotiations within the WTO [4][5] - A proposed comprehensive forum on climate change and trade could facilitate discussions based on expertise and openness, rather than formal negotiations [5] Group 4: The Future of Global Trade - Lamy argues that the world must pursue open trade, environmental protection, and domestic economic development simultaneously, especially for developing countries [5][6] - The transition from "fast globalization" to "slow globalization" is underway, with international trade still growing but at a slower pace [6] - The new normal of the multilateral trade system is characterized by trade weaponization, U.S. protectionism, and the rise of preventive trade measures due to public health and environmental concerns [6][7] Group 5: China's Role in Global Trade - China's total import and export value is projected to reach 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports by 2.3% [7] - As a major player in global trade, China must balance its macroeconomic rebalancing with the need to explore emerging markets and optimize trade structures [7][8] Group 6: Digitalization and Trade - Digitalization is reshaping global trade dynamics by lowering transaction costs and facilitating service trade growth [8] - However, significant differences in data governance and regulatory frameworks across countries create new barriers for service trade [8] Group 7: Reforming the WTO - The WTO faces a systemic contradiction as the U.S. participates in decision-making while having withdrawn from its constraints [9] - Lamy calls for reforms to improve the WTO's structure and efficiency to better address complex new issues [9] - A rebalancing of power between members and the secretariat is necessary to enhance decision-making efficiency within the WTO [9]