最关键一周，黄金开启巨震模式！

Group 1: Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold exhibited a typical high-to-low trend, soaring to around $4260 before quickly declining, closing at $4196.03, below the $4200 mark. Currently, gold is slightly up, hovering around $4206 during European trading hours [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Last week, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 0.31%, and the Nasdaq up 0.91%. The market opened December with a sense of "long-lost optimism," but this week is seen as a critical turning point [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, with results to be announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, 2025 [5] - The FOMC is expected to lower the overnight interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. However, the market's direction will be influenced more by the decision statement, dot plot, and Powell's remarks [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - This meeting may see an unusual number of dissenting votes, revealing internal divisions within the Fed. Powell is likely to provide a "hawkish rate cut," signaling caution and conditionality, which will determine whether the market trends "steadily higher" or experiences "volatility and uncertainty" in the coming months [8] - There is skepticism about whether the market will still heed Powell's guidance, especially with Trump's hints at a potential successor for the Fed chair position. The anticipated rate cut may not resolve uncertainty but rather initiate a new wave of volatility [8][10] Group 5: Monetary Policy Actions - The real "big move" from the Fed may not be the rate cut but rather the "reopening of the liquidity spigot" through the RMP, starting in January 2026, with plans to purchase $45 billion in short-term Treasury bonds monthly, at least until June next year. This aims to replenish liquidity in the system [10] - The market's reaction to the rate cut itself may be limited, with the true stimulus coming from RMP and term repo operations to stabilize year-end liquidity [12] Group 6: International Affairs - The U.S. has announced a significant shift in its national security strategy, focusing on military presence in the Western Hemisphere to address immigration and drug trafficking, marking a departure from the long-standing "pivot to Asia" approach [13][14] - In Brazil, the political landscape has shifted unexpectedly, with Flávio Bolsonaro announcing his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election, supported by his father, which has led to a reduction in market bets on a more market-friendly candidate [15]