TMGM外汇：年末“圣诞老人行情”可期？美联储政策成关键

Group 1 - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, which will determine whether the traditional year-end rally, known as the "Santa Claus Rally," will occur this year [1][3] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to adjust the benchmark interest rate, with nearly a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut reflected in derivatives markets [3] - The recent market correction was influenced by concerns over overheating in AI-related trades and fears regarding the economic impact of a government shutdown, but the end of the shutdown and positive economic data have strengthened expectations for policy adjustments [3] Group 2 - Market observers emphasize that the outlook for future policy paths from the Federal Reserve will be more significant than the meeting itself, particularly the economic forecast summary and interest rate projections for the next year [3] - Increased volatility is anticipated around the meeting date, as options market data indicates a rise in expected index volatility, potentially due to delayed adjustments in institutional investor models following previously stalled economic data releases [3] - Upcoming employment data, including job vacancies and unemployment claims, will provide additional insights for investors assessing the economic situation [3]