“稀土牌”打出来了？中国出口审批放缓，触动日本产业敏感神经

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing concern in Japan regarding the unusual slowdown in the approval process for rare earth export applications to China, which is perceived as a potential warning signal from the Chinese government [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Japanese Industry - Rare earth elements are critical for Japan's manufacturing sector, acting as a "Damocles sword" over its industrial capabilities [6]. - A report from Nomura Research Institute indicates that if China continues to restrict rare earth exports to Japan for three months, the Japanese economy could lose 660 billion yen, escalating to 2.6 trillion yen if the situation persists for a year [12]. - Japan's efforts to diversify its supply chain have only managed to reduce its reliance on China to 60%, while its dependence on heavy rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium remains close to 100% for key technologies such as electric vehicle motors [13]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Japan's attempts to downplay the situation are overshadowed by its strategic vulnerability, as the country has not successfully developed alternative sources of rare earths despite claims of significant deposits in the Minami-Torishima (South Bird) Island [15][18]. - The geopolitical tensions are exacerbated by Japan's provocative actions in the region, which are seen as attempts to distract from its internal challenges and reliance on Chinese supply chains [20][30]. - The article suggests that Japan's ambitions in geopolitics are not supported by sufficient economic strength, as evidenced by its unsuccessful attempts to reduce dependence on China since 2010 [29]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - China controls 70% of global rare earth production and 92% of the refining capacity, making it difficult for Japan to find alternative sources without relying on Chinese processing [10]. - Even if Japan manages to source rare earths from countries like Australia or Vietnam, the materials would still need to be processed in China, highlighting the structural challenges in achieving supply chain independence [31]. - The article emphasizes that Japan's focus should be on managing its domestic political challenges rather than assessing China's motivations, as failure to do so could lead to significant economic repercussions [33].