泡泡玛特遭空头围猎 近4个月跌40% 市值蒸发超1800亿港元

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock experienced a significant decline, dropping nearly 8.5% on December 8, marking its largest drop in over six weeks, with a cumulative decline of over 14% in the past month and approximately 40% from its August peak, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 180 billion HKD [2]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains bearish, with short-selling amounts reaching 1.092 billion HKD on December 8, an increase of 210.58% from the previous trading day and 47.35% higher than the average of the last 30 trading days; the short-selling ratio stood at 19.23%, deviating -17.33% from the average of the last 30 trading days [2]. - The number of shares short-sold increased from 1.1106 million to 1.6170 million since December 2, with short-selling amounts rising from 241 million HKD to 623 million HKD during the same period [2]. Recent Trading Data - Recent trading data shows a significant increase in short-selling amounts and ratios over the past ten days, with December 8 recording a short-selling amount of 1.092 billion HKD and a short-selling ratio of 19.23%, alongside a closing price of 200.40 HKD [3]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart's overall revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to surge by 245%-250% year-on-year, driven by the launch of new products like Mini Labubu and SP Insomnia Theater, along with revenue recognition from pre-sales in Q2, which directly contributed to performance growth [3]. - The core IP Labubu continues to maintain global popularity, serving as a key growth driver, although the stock price has been on a downward trend before and after the earnings disclosure [3]. Product Market Dynamics - Following the launch of the Labubu new products on November 13, market enthusiasm has noticeably declined, with secondary market premiums dropping by over 50%, and regular versions 3.0 and 4.0 selling below official retail prices on secondary platforms [4]. - Deutsche Bank's latest report indicates that Pop Mart plans to significantly increase Labubu production capacity from 10 million units in the first half of the year to an average of 50 million units per month by the end of the year, warning that large-scale production often signals a decline in demand for brands reliant on unique design and scarcity [4].