年内最后一个超级央行周！美联储或降息

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the upcoming global central bank meetings, particularly the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut and the potential resumption of large-scale bond purchases [2][3][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce an 88% probability of a rate cut during its meeting, a significant increase from less than 67% a month ago [3]. - Economic data from the U.S. is mixed, with the labor market report being a key focus for investors ahead of the Fed meeting [3]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve may restart large-scale bond purchases, with predictions of a $45 billion monthly purchase plan starting in January 2026 [5]. - The Fed's balance sheet peaked at nearly $9 trillion in 2022 but has since shrunk by approximately $2.4 trillion due to quantitative tightening [6]. - Recent liquidity issues in the repo market indicate a shift from a "ample" to a "sufficient" reserve level, raising concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [6]. Group 3 - Other central banks, including those in Australia, Canada, and Switzerland, are also set to announce their interest rate decisions this week [7]. - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its rate at 2.25%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep its rate at 3.6% [7]. - The Swiss National Bank is anticipated to hold its rate at zero, acknowledging a weaker inflation outlook due to a stronger franc [8]. Group 4 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is expected to signal a potential rate hike, despite recent GDP contraction [10]. - Japan's GDP contracted by 2.3% in the third quarter, marking the first decline in six quarters, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy decisions [10]. - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan are high, with a 90% probability indicated by overnight index swaps [10][11].