美国经济“K型”增长加剧贫富分化，特朗普加紧布局中期选举

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a pronounced "K-shaped" growth, with a widening income gap between high-income and low-income groups, exacerbated by a weak job market and persistent inflation [1][3] - Inflation peaked at nearly 9% during the Biden administration, and despite some regulatory measures taken by Trump, inflationary pressures remain significant, impacting the midterm election prospects for the Republican Party [1][3] Labor Market and Income Disparity - Analysis from the Atlanta Federal Reserve indicates that wage growth for low-income groups has slowed significantly compared to high-income groups, erasing much of the progress made in narrowing the income gap over the past decade [3] - The unemployment rate for Latino voters reached 5.5% in September, the highest this year, contrasting with an overall U.S. unemployment rate of 4.4% [3] Consumer Confidence and Spending - A recent survey from the University of Michigan shows a decline in consumer confidence among non-stockholders, with their confidence index lower than during the inflation peak in mid-2022 [4] - Conversely, confidence among the top 20% of stockholders has increased, indicating a wealth effect that supports consumer resilience [4] Impact on Businesses - Companies targeting low-income consumers are experiencing significant impacts from the "K-shaped" trend, with McDonald's reporting a nearly double-digit decline in customer traffic from low-income consumers [5] - Chipotle's CEO noted a similar trend, with significant consumption declines among households earning less than $100,000 [5] Political Context and Economic Policy - Trump is set to address criticisms regarding his economic policies in Pennsylvania, a key swing state for the 2024 election, claiming that the cost of living crisis is a "hoax" created by Democrats [6] - The Republican Party is likely to incorporate the "Big and Beautiful" bill into their campaign, which retains tax cuts from Trump's first term but also reduces spending on medical assistance and food stamps [6] Future Economic Outlook - Economists agree that many ordinary Americans will face increased financial pressure in the next 12 months, with potential cuts to medical assistance and rising healthcare premiums for the middle class [8] - Even with positive GDP growth, middle-income and working-class individuals may find themselves in a recession of declining income [8]