双焦大跌，发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal and coke futures, driven by weak spot market conditions and a surge in import supply, has led to significant sell-offs in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 8, coking coal and coke futures continued their downward trend, with both coking coal contracts (2605 and 2601) and coke contract (2601) dropping over 6% [1]. - The main coking coal contract (2605) fell below the 1100 yuan mark, while the 01 contract faced pressure at the 1000 yuan support level [1]. - Since November, coking coal futures have seen a monthly decline of 17%, while coke futures have dropped by 11% [1]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts attribute the recent price drop to sluggish seasonal demand recovery, with November's higher temperatures leading to lower-than-expected daily coal consumption at power plants [3]. - As of December 4, the average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 5.56 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% [4]. - The total coal inventory at power plants reached 136.41 million tons, remaining stable year-on-year despite ongoing accumulation [4]. - The influx of imported coal has further alleviated supply pressures, contributing to the inability of spot prices to maintain high levels [3][5]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - High inventory levels at ports and production sites are key factors suppressing coal prices. As of December 5, inventory at the four northern ports reached 17.64 million tons, an increase of 1.09 million tons year-on-year [6]. - The total social inventory was 182.24 million tons as of December 4, with a week-on-week increase of 320,000 tons [6]. - The continuous accumulation of inventory, coupled with slow demand recovery, is directly causing the accelerated decline in coal prices [8]. Group 4: Future Demand Expectations - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding winter demand, with some analysts predicting that December temperatures will be close to or above normal, providing potential upward momentum for demand [9]. - The China Meteorological Administration indicates that most regions will experience temperatures near or above seasonal averages, with only specific areas expected to be colder [9]. - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities believe that the coal sector's cyclical bottom was confirmed in the second quarter of this year, with a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics expected [9]. Group 5: Long-term Contract Mechanism - The introduction of a new long-term coal contract mechanism for 2026 is expected to provide policy support for the market [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has outlined new requirements for long-term coal contracts, allowing for more market-oriented pricing adjustments [10]. - This adjustment is anticipated to enhance the industry's performance and improve valuation prospects, especially as coal consumption is expected to peak during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10].