三重超级周期！野村：明年DRAM、NAND和HBM需求同时爆发，有望推动存储市场翻倍

Core Insights - The global storage market is entering an unprecedented "Triple Super-Cycle," with demand for DRAM, NAND, and HBM expected to surge simultaneously by 2026 [1] - The market size is projected to grow by 98% year-on-year to $445 billion in 2026, further expanding to $590 billion in 2027, driven by AI infrastructure and a recovery in traditional server investments [1] - This super-cycle is anticipated to last until 2027, fueled by strong demand growth and limited supply expansion, leading to significant price increases for storage products [1] Demand Drivers - Strong demand from AI servers and a recovery in the general server market are key drivers [2] - The demand for general server-related memory (like DDR4 and DDR5) is expected to grow by approximately 50% in 2026 due to large tech companies resuming traditional cloud server investments [2] - The increase in AI inference workloads is driving demand for high-performance storage, with enterprise SSD (eSSD) demand expected to double next year [2] Market Dynamics - The core of this super-cycle is the dual resonance of AI and general server demand, with HBM4 demand expected to ramp up in 2026 [3] - Major tech companies are projected to increase investments in traditional DRAM products by 20% to 30% in 2026, tightening supply [3] - The shortage of commodity DRAM is expected to push operating profit margins to around 70% between 2026 and 2027 [3] NAND and eSSD Market Growth - eSSD is becoming a major growth engine in the NAND sector, expected to account for about 40% of total NAND demand by 2026 [4] - The shift from HDD to SSD is accelerating due to increased demand for high-performance storage, with eSSD demand projected to grow over 100% [4] - NAND industry operating profit margins are expected to improve significantly, reaching 30% to 40% by 2026 [4] Supply Constraints - Supply expansion in the global storage industry will be limited due to a shortage of cleanroom availability until mid-2027 [5] - DRAM spot prices have surged by 200% to 300% since October, while NAND wafer spot prices have increased by 140% [5] - The transition to advanced technology nodes is expected to reduce wafer capacity by 10% to 15%, further constraining supply [6] Impact on Downstream Markets - The rising prices of storage chips will significantly increase BOM costs for PC and smartphone manufacturers, leading to potential profit compression or price hikes [7] - Global PC shipments are projected to decline by 2.8% year-on-year in 2026, while smartphone shipments may decrease by 1.7% [7] - Mid-range smartphones will be more affected due to higher storage cost proportions, while Apple is expected to remain relatively insulated due to its strong profit margins and supply agreements [7]