Labubu不再稀缺？泡泡玛特一度跌超9%，卖空金额飙升77%

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (9992.HK) has dropped over 9% in intraday trading on December 8, leading to increased market scrutiny and a significant decline in market capitalization [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - As of the close on December 8, Pop Mart's stock was priced at 200.40 HKD per share, down 8.49%, with a total market value of 269.1 billion HKD, representing a loss of approximately 25 billion HKD compared to the previous trading day [1] - Short-selling sentiment towards Pop Mart has intensified, with short-sold shares increasing from 1.1106 million to 3.0512 million since December 2, and the short-selling amount rising from 241 million HKD to 623 million HKD, a surge of 158% [1][3] - On December 8, the short-selling amount increased by 77% compared to the previous trading day, with over 84 million shares still outstanding [1] Group 2: Production and Market Trends - Deutsche Bank's report on December 1 indicated that Pop Mart plans to significantly increase the production capacity of its Labubu line from 10 million units in the first half of the year to an average of 50 million units per month by year-end [3] - The report cautioned that large-scale production for a brand reliant on unique designs and scarcity could signal a decline in popularity [3] - Since August, the premium for Labubu and other popular IPs in the secondary market has decreased significantly, with hidden variants' premiums shrinking by over 50%, and regular versions selling below official retail prices [3] Group 3: Future Growth and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's report suggested that Pop Mart is transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to one of sustainable growth, predicting a significant slowdown in revenue growth for Labubu by 2026, with diversification becoming the new growth driver [4] - Morgan Stanley adjusted its target price for Pop Mart from 382 HKD to 325 HKD, reflecting concerns about the sustainability of high growth in the collectible toy industry [4] - Some institutions remain optimistic about Pop Mart's prospects, with reports highlighting its strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential, suggesting that the company's valuation is now in an attractive range [4] Group 4: Sales Performance and Market Expansion - Huayuan Securities noted that the upcoming holiday sales season, including Black Friday and Christmas, could enhance Pop Mart's IP influence, with ongoing operations of old IPs and the gradual introduction of new IPs [5] - The company is expanding its product range from blind boxes and plush toys to articulated figures and accessories, which is expected to enhance brand influence [5] - Financial reports indicate that Pop Mart's overall revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to grow by 245%-250% year-on-year, with Chinese market revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas market revenue rising by 365%-370%, exceeding market expectations [5]