甲骨文(ORCL.US)股价回撤35%后，市场紧盯债务与现金流拐点

Core Viewpoint - Oracle (ORCL.US) is set to release its Q2 FY2026 earnings report on December 10, 2023, with analysts expecting revenue of $16.22 billion, a 15.4% year-over-year increase, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.64, reflecting an 11.6% growth [1]. Revenue and Earnings Performance - Historical data shows Oracle has exceeded revenue expectations only twice in the past eight quarters, with an average revenue surprise of -0.34% [2][3]. - In terms of earnings per share (EPS), Oracle has a better track record, achieving an average positive surprise of 1.02% [4][3]. Market Sentiment and Stock Reaction - Despite a cautious market outlook due to supply chain constraints affecting data center construction, Oracle's cloud infrastructure and remaining performance obligations (RPO) have shown strong growth, leading to an average stock price increase of 8.52% in the week following earnings releases [5][6]. Key Areas of Investor Focus - Investors are advised to focus on three critical areas in the upcoming earnings report: debt situation, cash flow status, and developments related to OpenAI [7][8]. - The company reported Q1 FY2024 revenue of $14.93 billion, a 12.2% increase, but fell short of market expectations by $1.17 billion; non-GAAP EPS was $1.47, up 5.75% year-over-year, but also below consensus [8]. Financial Health Concerns - Following a significant spike in stock price after a record RPO increase of 359% and a $300 billion computing power agreement with OpenAI, investor concerns about Oracle's ability to fulfill these orders have led to a stock price decline of over 35% since September [9]. - The company has issued $18 billion in investment-grade bonds and may need to raise up to $100 billion to fund data center construction, raising concerns reflected in the credit default swap (CDS) market [9]. Future Guidance and Valuation - Investors should pay close attention to Oracle's clarity on its funding plans for AI infrastructure and the timeline for returning to positive free cash flow, as these factors are crucial for assessing financial strength [10]. - The company has set ambitious long-term targets for gross margins and EPS, but investors need to evaluate current margin trends [10]. - Oracle's forward P/E ratio is approximately 29.5, lower than its previous 35.5 but still above the five-year average of 21.3, indicating limited upside potential [11].