美联储本周鹰派降息或成定局，内部“大乱斗”副本将开启

Group 1 - The consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, despite potential disagreements among policymakers [1] - Alan Blinder, a former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve, suggests that the likelihood of a rate cut is greater than not, but warns of possible hawkish signals accompanying the cut [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about inflation, indicating that the necessity for a rate cut is not strong, as inflation remains above the 2% target [1][2] Group 2 - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.8% in September, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from August, with officials predicting an end-of-year inflation rate of 3.1% [3] - The non-farm payroll report for September showed a rebound in job growth, adding 119,000 jobs, following a loss of 4,000 jobs in August [3] - The labor market is experiencing a slowdown, with some companies implementing hiring freezes and layoffs, partly due to the impact of artificial intelligence on entry-level positions [3][6] Group 3 - Luke Tilley from Wilmington Trust predicts three additional rate cuts in the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, citing a weakening labor market [7] - Aditya Bhave from Bank of America anticipates two more rate cuts in June and July of next year, attributing this to leadership changes rather than economic conditions [7] - Amir Bagherpour from Accenture forecasts one to two additional rate cuts next year, assuming core PCE inflation will be between 2.5% and 2.7% and GDP growth will be in the range of 1.5% to 1.8% [7]