Carvana set for further upside as Bank of America lifts price target ahead of S&P 500 inclusion

Core Viewpoint - Carvana's stock is expected to continue its upward momentum following its inclusion in the S&P 500 index, with Bank of America raising its price target to $455, indicating a potential upside of 13.8% from recent closing prices [1]. Group 1: S&P 500 Inclusion - Carvana will officially be added to the S&P 500 index on December 22, which is anticipated to drive share appreciation as index funds will be required to purchase the stock [2]. - The inclusion is seen as a significant catalyst for Carvana, with Bank of America identifying it as a key factor for potential growth as early as June [3]. - The confirmation of inclusion has led to expectations of mechanical buying from passive funds, which typically supports short-term price strength [4]. Group 2: Company Fundamentals - Carvana's fundamentals are reported to be stable, with improving unit volume data alleviating earlier investor concerns regarding potential slowdowns [5]. - Consumer demand is described as stable to strong, with market share gains over competitor CarMax contributing to this strength [6]. - The company is on track to potentially surpass CarMax in quarterly units sold by 2026, marking a significant milestone in the competitive used-vehicle market [7]. Group 3: Growth Outlook and Capital Structure - The updated price target reflects a higher long-term growth outlook, with a projected compound annual unit growth rate of 20% from 2027 to 2032, an increase from the previous estimate of 18.5% [8]. - Carvana has received credit rating upgrades, which may lower its cost of capital and improve its financial position [9]. - The upcoming S&P 500 inclusion is expected to enhance investor visibility and broaden access to institutional capital, further strengthening Carvana's financial standing [9]. Group 4: Market Performance - Carvana's share price has nearly doubled this year, indicating renewed support from major institutions as it prepares for its S&P 500 debut [10]. - Sustaining rapid growth remains a key challenge for the company in the coming years [10].