价格冲破十年天花板 港口库存220万吨也压不住！硫磺为何变“疯磺”？

Core Viewpoint - The price of sulfur has surged dramatically, reaching new highs and breaking historical records, driven by strong external market prices and increased demand from the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry [1][5][12]. Price Trends - As of December 8, domestic sulfur manufacturers have raised prices significantly, with increases of up to 100 yuan/ton in a single day [1]. - The price of sulfur has more than doubled in 2025, with solid sulfur prices reaching 4150 yuan/ton and liquid sulfur at 4200 yuan/ton, compared to earlier prices of 1750 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year [3][5]. - The total inventory of sulfur at Chinese ports is reported to be 220.28 million tons, yet this has not prevented price increases [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The surge in sulfur prices is attributed to strong external market performance, particularly from Qatar, where the December sulfur contract price rose to 495 USD/ton, significantly impacting import costs [5]. - Despite high inventory levels, market sentiment remains bullish, with 71% of participants in a survey expressing a positive outlook for December [7]. - The phosphate fertilizer industry is recovering, with production rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate improving, which supports sulfur demand [8]. Profitability and Cost Pressures - Leading companies in the fertilizer sector, such as Yuntianhua, are facing increased production costs due to rising sulfur prices, which have negatively impacted their profit margins [9]. - Yuntianhua reported a 21.88% decline in revenue and a 2.81% drop in net profit, attributing these challenges to high raw material costs [9]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high price levels, with predictions of sulfur prices potentially reaching 5000 yuan/ton in the future [1][10]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term price corrections may occur, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to limited supply growth and steady demand [11][12].