曹德旺预言？现在买房的人究竟是“赢家”还是“被套牢”的那一群？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has been in a long-term adjustment since the second half of 2021, with average national housing prices dropping over 30%, and certain areas experiencing declines exceeding 60% [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have also begun to adjust in 2023, following declines in second and third-tier cities [1] - Various real estate stimulus policies have been introduced since 2024, including the lifting of purchase restrictions in most cities and reductions in mortgage rates and down payment ratios to historical lows [3] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Current speculation in the housing market is likely to result in investors becoming "trapped" in the future, while those who refrain from buying may emerge as "winners" [6] - There remains significant adjustment space in housing prices, with price-to-income ratios in second and third-tier cities reaching 20-25 and over 40 in first-tier cities, indicating a disconnect between housing prices and local income levels [6][10] - The oversupply of housing is evident, with 600 million units available, enough to accommodate 3 billion people, while urbanization is nearing its peak and demographic trends indicate a decline in housing demand [9] - Current high housing prices are unsustainable as residents' incomes are not keeping pace, leading to a likelihood of further price adjustments [10] - The previous "profitability" of real estate investments has diminished, with many speculators either selling off properties or holding cash, increasing downward pressure on prices [12]