-2.3% 日本GDP降幅超预期

Economic Overview - Japan's economy is facing multiple challenges including sluggish growth, high inflation, weak domestic demand, and declining exports [1][4] - In Q3 2025, Japan's GDP decreased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, leading to an annualized decline of 2.3% if the trend continues [3] - The downward revision of GDP is primarily due to weak corporate capital investment, which fell by 0.2%, and public investment, which was revised down to a decline of 1.1% [3] Consumer Behavior - Personal consumption, a key driver of domestic demand, was adjusted to a growth of 0.2%, supported by increased dining out [3] - However, real wages in Japan fell by 1.4% year-on-year in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline, which undermines consumer confidence [4] External Factors - Japan's economy is heavily impacted by U.S. tariffs, particularly on automobiles and parts, which have significantly affected the automotive industry, a major economic pillar [6][7] - Exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 3.1% in October, with significant drops in automotive and semiconductor equipment exports [3][7] Government Response - The Japanese government announced a large-scale economic stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD), aimed at addressing rising prices and boosting investment in key sectors [8] - Concerns have been raised regarding the effectiveness of this stimulus plan, as it may lack focus and could exacerbate inflation and government debt burdens [9] Structural Issues - Japan's economy faces structural problems, including an aging population, which leads to labor shortages and limits market expansion [7] - The government debt is substantial, currently around 263% of GDP, which poses significant fiscal risks [7]