Carvana Pops 10% as Users Call Its S&P 500 Addition ‘Market Manipulation’ and Bet Against Rally

Core Viewpoint - Carvana's stock price surged 10% in pre-market trading due to its upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500, despite significant skepticism from retail investors who perceive insider selling as a red flag [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Carvana shares have increased by 120% year-to-date and 45% in the past month, with analysts at JPMorgan upgrading the stock to Overweight with a target price of $425 [1] - Retail sentiment remains bearish, with social sentiment scores around 25 out of 100, indicating a lack of confidence among retail traders [1] - Insider selling has raised concerns, with executives selling shares at prices between $370-$400, leading to questions about the company's health [2][4] Group 2: Technical Factors and Market Dynamics - The upcoming S&P 500 inclusion is expected to create a technical squeeze, as index funds will need to purchase approximately 16 million shares by December 19 [3] - There are 12 million shares sold short, and market makers are hedging newly in-the-money call options, which may lead to increased volatility [3] - Retail traders view the current market dynamics as a "grand finale" rather than a fundamental revaluation of the company [3] Group 3: Concerns Over Business Fundamentals - There are indications that demand for used cars may be weakening, influenced by the expiration of EV credits and tariff concerns [4] - Historical accounting issues and related-party transactions involving CEO Ernest Garcia III and his father, who owns nearly 40% of diluted shares, have raised additional concerns [4]