华尔街慌了！哈塞特若接棒美联储，激进降息将引发市场暴动？

Core Viewpoint - The appointment process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly complex, with concerns about potential political influence affecting monetary policy decisions [2][3]. Group 1: Appointment Dynamics - President Trump has indicated he has chosen a successor for Fed Chair Powell, with NEC Director Kevin Hassett being named as a potential frontrunner [3]. - Concerns have arisen among investors that Hassett may prioritize appeasing Trump over maintaining the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [3][4]. - The potential nomination of Hassett has led to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield by 11 basis points, reflecting market anxiety [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market participants are attempting to gauge the future Fed Chair's stance, whether dovish or hawkish, amidst uncertainty about how they will act once in position [5]. - If trust in the Fed's independence erodes, investors may demand higher returns on U.S. debt, which could inadvertently raise long-term interest rates [6]. Group 3: Structural Considerations - The Fed's decision-making structure, which includes multiple voting members, is designed to mitigate political influence, ensuring that the Chair cannot unilaterally dictate policy [6]. - The potential reshuffling of Trump's economic advisory team adds another layer of complexity to the appointment process, with implications for the NEC and CEA leadership [6][7]. Group 4: Legal and Political Challenges - The ongoing legal situation regarding Governor Lisa Cook's potential dismissal could significantly impact the composition of the Fed's board, raising questions about its political independence [8]. - If Cook loses her case, Trump could effectively shape the majority of the board, which may lead to concerns about the politicization of the Fed and its impact on inflation [9].