Broadcom Q4 Earnings Loom: Buy, or Hold the Stock Ahead of Results?

Core Insights - Broadcom (AVGO) is expected to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on December 11, with projected revenues of $17.4 billion, indicating a 24.5% year-over-year growth [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings remains at $1.87 per share, reflecting a 31.7% increase from the previous year's quarter [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - For the current quarter (October 2025), earnings per share are estimated at $1.87, with a slight increase to $1.96 for the next quarter [2] - Current year earnings are projected at $6.72, while next year’s earnings are expected to rise to $9.20 [2] Performance Trends - Broadcom has consistently exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 2.82% [4] - The company anticipates a significant boost in AI revenues, projected to grow 66% year-over-year to $6.2 billion, driven by demand for custom AI accelerators [6][9] Product Developments - Broadcom has launched the first Wi-Fi 8 silicon solutions and the third-generation Co-Packaged Optics Ethernet switch, designed for AI networking, capable of 102.4 terabits per second [7][8] - The Jericho 4 Ethernet fabric router and Thor Ultra AI Ethernet Network Interface Card have also been introduced, enhancing the company's AI infrastructure capabilities [8] Market Position and Growth Drivers - Broadcom's semiconductor revenues are expected to increase by 24% year-over-year to $17.4 billion, with infrastructure software revenues projected to grow 15% to $6.7 billion [10] - The company has a strong partner base, including major firms like OpenAI, Walmart, and NVIDIA, which is expected to drive top-line growth [10] Margin and Valuation Insights - A sequential decline in gross margin of 70 basis points is anticipated due to a higher mix of lower-margin XPUs [11] - Broadcom's stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 41.23X, indicating a stretched valuation compared to industry peers [15] Long-Term Prospects - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to benefit Broadcom's long-term growth, particularly with the deployment of XPUs by hyperscalers [18] - VMware's momentum is also contributing to the growth of Infrastructure Software revenues, with the launch of VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 [19] Conclusion - Broadcom's strong portfolio and expanding partner base suggest solid long-term growth potential, although declining gross margins and high valuation present risks [20]