CBRL to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) is expected to report a loss of 68 cents per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenues projected at $801.1 million, indicating a 5.2% decline from the previous year [2][7]. Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CBRL's fiscal first-quarter bottom line is a loss of 68 cents per share, compared to an earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenue estimates for the quarter are set at $801.1 million, reflecting a 5.2% decrease from the prior year's figure [2]. Group 2: Factors Impacting Quarterly Results - A significant decline in guest traffic is anticipated due to a brand refresh in mid-August, leading to an expected 7%-8% drop in quarterly traffic and a projected 4.5% year-over-year decline in same-store sales [3]. - Despite menu upgrades and food quality enhancements, a planned 4%-5% price increase may have further strained customer sentiment, limiting the effectiveness of pricing strategies against traffic declines [4]. - Retail performance is expected to be negatively impacted by tariff-driven adjustments and SKU reductions, with retail revenues predicted to fall 4.6% year over year to $154.1 million [4]. Group 3: Operating Expenses and Profitability - Operating expenses are projected to negatively affect quarterly profitability, with an estimated $16 million in additional costs related to marketing, training, and conferences [5]. - The combination of increased costs and weaker restaurant-level volumes is likely to compress margins, with costs of goods sold expected to rise 2.1% year over year to $264.3 million [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal first quarter is predicted to decline 47.7% year over year to $24 million, indicating significant pressure from traffic and cost challenges [6]. Group 4: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Cracker Barrel, as the company has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [7][8].