二手房业主学区房无效，未来学区房还值得购买吗？

Core Viewpoint - The investment value of school district housing has significantly diminished, requiring families to assess their actual needs and policy risks before making purchases, as the investment attributes and degree of certainty regarding school placements are no longer reliable [1] Policy Level: Erosion of School District Housing Value - Starting in 2025, a nationwide policy of "multiple school zoning and lottery enrollment" will be implemented in cities at the prefecture level and above, breaking the one-to-one relationship between school district housing and specific prestigious schools. Even if families purchase school district housing, there is no guarantee that their children will be admitted to their desired schools. For instance, the average price of school district housing in Beijing's Zhongguancun has dropped from 12 million yuan per unit in 2022 to 9 million yuan in 2025, a decline of 25%. Additionally, school district housing prices in major cities across the country have generally fallen by over 15%, with transaction volumes shrinking by more than 50%. The implementation of a "teacher mobility system" further diminishes the concentration of quality teaching resources in specific schools, weakening the traditional allure of school district housing [3][5] Market Level: Changes in Supply and Demand Dynamics - With the continuous decline in birth rates, some cities are experiencing situations where schools are not fully enrolled, alleviating the tension around school placements and gradually eliminating the "premium" associated with school district housing. For example, in Shanghai, the quality of newly established schools is improving, leading parents to shift from a mindset of "long-term holding of school district housing" to "selling after use," which intensifies the selling trend of school district housing. Furthermore, the implementation of the "equal rights for renting and purchasing" policy allows children from renting families to enroll in nearby schools, enjoying the same educational resources as purchasing families, further breaking the "monopoly" on school placements associated with school district housing [5][7] Family Demand Level: Rational Assessment and Diverse Choices - For families with limited economic conditions who prioritize living quality, the high premiums and policy risks associated with school district housing make it a less favorable option. The future value of real estate will increasingly reflect its utility, such as transportation convenience, environmental sustainability, and health service amenities. Families still seeking quality educational resources for their children may consider areas with a dual focus on "industry and education," as these regions tend to have stronger resilience in core school districts due to their industrial advantages [7]