未来两三个季度有望看到宏观层面改善

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The global macroeconomic environment is characterized by a struggle between weak fundamentals and loose monetary policies, leading to significant differentiation in the commodity market [1] - Key indicators such as employment, inflation, and economic growth are showing weakness, while financial conditions are improving due to widespread monetary and fiscal easing across major economies [1][2] - The U.S. economy is described as "weak but not tragic," with a slight weakening in the job market supporting expectations for interest rate cuts, although stable inflation data has tempered these expectations [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Insights - In the domestic economy, ample credit and declining interest rates have optimized financial conditions, leading to a transformation in the financing structure with an increase in direct financing [2] - The current economic structure shows a disparity where consumption lags behind investment and production, although positive signals such as tax revenue growth outpacing non-tax revenue growth indicate potential economic recovery [2] - Industrial profits are showing signs of improvement, providing support for stock market performance, while the real estate market remains weak and consumption has declined from earlier highs [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - Precious metals are entering a long-term bull market, supported by the expansion of U.S. debt, although current prices are considered high based on historical benchmarks [3] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, aluminum is favored due to supply constraints, while copper is supported by demand from new energy and electrification, though it may experience short-term volatility [3] - The energy sector shows slow growth in demand for crude oil, with supply-side pressures limiting upward movement, while the black metal industry faces challenges due to weak construction demand and excess capacity [3] Group 4: Future Expectations - Historical data suggests that after U.S. interest rate cuts, commodity markets typically experience a recovery within 1 to 4 quarters, indicating potential for macroeconomic improvement in the next two to three quarters [3] - Investors are advised to focus on policy guidance and measures to reduce industry competition, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous metals where opportunities may arise [3]