Cracker Barrel Q1 Preview: Did The Logo Backlash Hurt Sales? Investors Are About To Find Out

Core Viewpoint - Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc is expected to report disappointing first-quarter financial results, reflecting the impact of a recent logo change backlash on its revenue and traffic [1][2][10]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict Cracker Barrel will report first-quarter revenue of $802.22 million, a decrease from $845.09 million in the same quarter last year [1]. - The anticipated revenue would represent the lowest quarterly revenue for Cracker Barrel in 15 quarters, dating back to the third fiscal quarter of 2022, which reported $790.2 million [2]. - Analysts expect a loss of 68 cents per share for the first quarter, a significant decline from a profit of 45 cents per share in the previous year [2]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have expressed caution regarding Cracker Barrel since the company’s fourth-quarter results, which did not account for the backlash from the logo change [4]. - Bank of America Securities analyst Sara Senatore noted that the negative response to the rebranding could hinder the company's turnaround efforts, leading to a lowered price target from $48 to $42 [5][6]. - Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan also reduced the price target from $56 to $49, citing traffic declines and below-consensus guidance for fiscal 2026 [6]. Traffic and Visitor Data - Cracker Barrel's traffic declined by 1% in the fourth quarter and has continued at a similar level into the first quarter, with a notable drop of approximately 8% following the logo change announcement [7]. - Data from Placer.ai indicates that visits to Cracker Barrel locations fell by 5.3% in the week following the logo change, with year-over-year traffic dropping by double digits in subsequent weeks [10][11]. - In September, visits were down 12.1% year-over-year, following a slight decline of 0.1% in August [11]. Future Guidance - Cracker Barrel's fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion is below analyst expectations of $3.47 billion [13]. - The impact of the logo change backlash on first-quarter results and future recovery potential will be critical points of focus for investors and analysts [13]. Stock Performance - Cracker Barrel's stock has decreased by 2.7% to $27.07, with a year-to-date decline of 50.7% in 2025 [13].