周一油价下跌 市场关注乌克兰谈判与美联储会议

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices declined as investors focused on the progress of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine war and anticipated a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for January delivery fell by $1.20, a decrease of 1%, closing at $58.88 per barrel [1]. - The January Brent crude oil contract settled down $1.26, a drop of 1.98%, at $62.49 per barrel [1]. - Both oil contracts reached their highest levels since November 18 during Friday's trading session [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - Analysts suggest that any agreement on the Ukraine issue could lead to increased Russian oil exports, exerting downward pressure on oil prices [2]. - The market anticipates an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meetings [2]. - Comments from Federal Reserve board members indicate significant internal disagreements, raising investor concerns about the direction of Fed policy [2]. Group 3: Ukraine Negotiations - Progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine remains slow, with unresolved issues concerning security guarantees for Kyiv and the status of Russian-occupied territories [2]. - U.S. and Russian officials have differing views on the peace proposals put forth by the Trump administration [2]. Group 4: Supply Risks and Projections - Analysts predict that potential outcomes from the latest push to end the war could lead to daily oil supply fluctuations exceeding 2 million barrels [3]. - A ceasefire is identified as a major downside risk for oil price outlook, while ongoing damage to Russian oil infrastructure presents an upside risk [3]. - Concerns about oversupply are expected to materialize, particularly as Russian crude and refined oil begin to circumvent existing sanctions, potentially pushing futures prices towards $60 per barrel by 2026 [3]. Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The G7 and EU are reportedly discussing a comprehensive maritime service ban to replace the price cap on Russian oil exports, which could further restrict supply from the world's second-largest oil producer [4]. - The U.S. is intensifying pressure on OPEC member Venezuela, including actions against alleged drug smuggling vessels and discussions of military action to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro [4].