警惕日元加息这头“灰犀牛”

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo has ignited market expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that the BOJ will assess the pros and cons of raising rates at the upcoming policy meeting on December 19, with an 80% market expectation for a rate hike by year-end [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Japan has maintained near-zero or negative interest rates since 1990 to stimulate the economy, leading to the yen being the cheapest financing currency globally [1][2] - The "Watanabe-san" group, representing Japanese housewives, has utilized low yen rates for carry trades, accounting for nearly one-third of Japan's retail forex market [2] - The yen's depreciation against the dollar has increased import costs and sustained imported inflation, while Japan's government debt exceeds 230% of GDP [3] Group 2: Market Implications - The potential for a rate hike raises borrowing costs for yen, creating pressure on carry traders who may need to liquidate overseas assets to repay yen-denominated debts, leading to a sudden contraction in global liquidity [3][4] - The reversal of carry trades is seen as a bellwether for changes in global market risk appetite, with high-value and high-leverage assets, such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, facing significant sell-offs [4]