为何美债危机难以化解？

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's national debt has surpassed $30 trillion for the first time, nearly doubling since 2018 [2] - As of November, the total federal government debt has reached $38.4 trillion, approaching the statutory debt ceiling of $41.1 trillion, raising concerns about a potential debt crisis [2] - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 126.79%, significantly exceeding the international warning threshold [2] Group 2 - The traditional practice of the Federal Reserve financing fiscal deficits has been disrupted due to the soaring debt levels, leading to increased market anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury securities and fiscal stability [2] - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA, indicating heightened default risk [2] Group 3 - The U.S. government's revenue is heavily reliant on direct taxes, which are closely tied to the income of businesses and individuals, making it highly cyclical [4] - Recent tariff policies have been identified as a factor that could slow economic growth, further impacting government revenue [4] - Tax cuts have been used by successive administrations to gain voter support, further reducing federal revenue [4] Group 4 - The rapid increase in the aging population and advancements in medical technology are driving up social security and Medicare expenditures, which accounted for 60.1% of total spending in FY 2024 [5] - Without fundamental changes to the revenue and expenditure structure, the U.S. faces an unresolved fiscal crisis, leading to increased reliance on deficit monetization [5] Group 5 - The ongoing increase in fiscal deficits and tariff policies may undermine the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, signaling the potential for a reform in the global monetary system [5]