对话2026 | 2026年宏观脑洞开在哪儿

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to provide alternative macroeconomic scenarios for 2026 that deviate from consensus expectations, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks [1] Group 2 - U.S. inflation pressures may exceed expectations, leading the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate hikes [1] - Debt risks in the Eurozone could amplify, prompting the European Central Bank to expand its balance sheet again [1] - Gold prices are expected to enter a phase of sustained adjustment [1] Group 3 - U.S. crude oil production may peak and then decline, while the oil-gold ratio is anticipated to rebound [1] - Consumer spending could potentially exceed expectations [1] - Exports are likely to continue outperforming expectations [1] Group 4 - The growth rate of export prices may turn positive, driving a stronger-than-expected recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] - Accelerating declines in rental prices and expectations of a downturn in the secondary housing market may lead to new real estate policies [1]