美联储年终大戏即将上演，一文解密四大看点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates for the third consecutive time due to warning signals from the U.S. job market, with significant attention on the potential for dissenting votes during the meeting and the implications for future economic forecasts [1][3]. Group 1: Divergence Among Policymakers - Since summer, divisions among Federal Reserve policymakers have become apparent, particularly as inflation relief has stalled and job growth has slowed, creating a conflict between the goals of 2% inflation and full employment [3]. - The government shutdown has complicated the situation, delaying key economic data releases and solidifying differing stances on whether further rate cuts are necessary to boost the job market [3]. - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that the U.S. could lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets, suggesting that current monetary policy is moderately restrictive and that there is room for adjustment [3]. Group 2: Economic Resilience and Rate Cut Hesitance - Boston Fed President Susan Collins expressed hesitance towards further rate cuts, believing current policy is appropriately restrictive and can maintain downward pressure on inflation [4]. - Despite some sectors showing weakness, the overall economy remains resilient, with consumer spending and business investment expected to support growth, although inflation risks persist [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may see multiple dissenting votes, with five policymakers previously expressing opposition or skepticism towards further rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The latest economic outlook suggests moderate growth for the U.S. economy, with a median growth forecast of 2% for 2026, up from previous estimates, but job creation is expected to remain weak [6]. - Inflation is projected to slightly decrease to 2.6% by 2026, with tariffs identified as a significant factor driving prices higher [6]. - The labor market is anticipated to remain weak, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026, consistent with previous Fed forecasts [6]. Group 4: Future Rate Cut Predictions - Regardless of the December decision, internal resistance within the Fed is expected to be greater than at any time in the past eight years, with divisions likely to persist into the next year [8]. - Market expectations indicate a potential for approximately 52 basis points of rate cuts by 2026, equivalent to two rate cuts [8]. - Institutions predict that the Fed will complete two rate cuts in the first three quarters of the year, with varying timelines for implementation [8]. Group 5: Asset Management and Liquidity - The future direction of the Fed's balance sheet is considered equally important as interest rate decisions, especially in light of recent pressures in the overnight funding market [11]. - The Fed has halted its balance sheet reduction process to avoid a repeat of past market crises, indicating a focus on maintaining liquidity [11]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed may need to conduct regular Treasury purchases to manage reserves effectively, with expectations for monthly purchases starting in early 2024 [12][13].