Nomura (US:NMR) Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-12-09 00:43Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should continue to lower interest rates, as indicated by Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on December 9-10, with a high probability (89.6%) of a 25 basis point rate cut [3][5]. - Market expectations have shifted significantly, with major Wall Street institutions, including JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, revising their forecasts to anticipate a rate cut instead of maintaining rates [4][5]. - The recent decline in U.S. employment data, particularly a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, has contributed to the expectation of a rate cut [6]. Group 2: Wall Street Institutions' Predictions - Standard Chartered and other major banks have changed their predictions to expect a 25 basis point cut in December, contrary to previous forecasts of no change [5][6]. - Nomura Securities has revised its stance twice, now predicting a rate cut after initially suggesting rates would remain unchanged [6]. - Analysts note that the collective shift in predictions among Wall Street firms is largely due to the softening economic data from November [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - Nomura anticipates that under new leadership, the Fed will implement further rate cuts in June and September 2026 [6][7]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair could lead to more aggressive rate cuts, as he is expected to support such measures [7]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed may pause rate cuts in January 2024 but continue in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [7].