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贝森特想要“美国降息、日本加息”,野村:有可能,但有前提
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-18 01:08
对此,据追风交易台消息,野村证券内部不同团队从各自角度进行了解读。其全球外汇策略团队认为, 美联储降息与日本央行加息并存的局面是"可行的",但这一情景能否实现,取决于几个关键前提,包括 美联储降息的步伐,以及日本国内的经济表现和政治稳定性。 但野村宏观策略团队则警告称,这种看似矛盾的政策组合背后,隐藏着市场对全球经济前景的根本性分 歧,美国政策利率终点高于3.0%而日本低于1.0%的组合是"不自然的",市场对两大央行未来路径的定 价存在内在矛盾,最终必有一方将被修正。无论哪种分歧被证伪,都可能引发市场调整。 可行性关键前提:美联储降息幅度与日本经济和政局稳定 野村证券全球外汇策略团队认为,"美国降息、日本加息"能够共存的核心基础,在于日本经济基本面足 够稳固。数据显示,日本经济到目前为止对美国的关税措施表现出了一定的韧性。 根据报告引述的数据,日本第二季度GDP年化增长率为1.0%,远高于市场普遍预期的0.4%,同时第一 季度GDP也从-0.2%上修至+0.6%,大幅缓解了对经济衰退的担忧。细分数据显示,家庭消费、私人资 本支出和出口均表现稳健。此外,7月的经济观察家调查也显示未来景气指数回升至一月以来高点。 ...
野村证券:澳洲联储料将降息25基点 但鸽派指引可能性低
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 23:57
新华财经北京8月12日电野村证券经济学家Hannah Liu表示,预计澳洲联储今日将一致同意降息25个基 点,但不太可能提供鸽派指引。澳洲联储可能会重申其"谨慎和渐进"的进一步宽松政策。 二季度CPI数据表明,澳洲联储此前对通胀的担忧略显过度。虽然二季度失业率均值为4.2%,但6月已 微升至4.3%。 (文章来源:新华财经) 近期经济活动数据表现向好,这提醒市场:对澳洲联储而言,当前降息逻辑更多是基于通胀回落提供的 政策空间,而非经济疲软需要连续降息。 ...
三大股指期货齐涨,诺和诺德下调2025年展望
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 13:04
Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.13%, S&P 500 futures by 0.30%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.47% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 1.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.55%, France's CAC40 up 1.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.02% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.07% to $66.76 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.13% to $69.41 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is not yet prepared to lower interest rates, with officials divided on the timing and evidence needed for such a decision [5] - The upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the White House is anticipated to be a catalyst for the crypto market, alongside the Fed's interest rate decision [5] Company News - Oppenheimer raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7100 points, citing easing trade tensions and strong corporate earnings, indicating an 11% upside from the latest closing price [6] - Novo Nordisk lowered its 2025 sales growth and profit expectations, projecting sales growth of 8%-14% compared to a previous forecast of 13%-21% [7] - UnitedHealth's second-quarter earnings guidance fell short of expectations, forecasting adjusted EPS of at least $16, significantly below the analyst consensus of $20.40 [8] - UPS refrained from providing earnings guidance due to market volatility, reporting Q2 revenue of $21.2 billion, a 2.8% year-over-year decline [8][9] - Stellantis restored its earnings guidance but warned of a €1.2 billion (approximately $1.4 billion) tariff impact in the second half of the year [9] - Nomura Holdings reported a 52% year-over-year increase in Q1 net profit, driven by strong trading and investment banking performance [10] - Barclays announced a 23% increase in first-half profits and a $1.3 billion stock buyback plan, benefiting from market trading activity [11] - Whirlpool's Q2 sales fell 5.4% to $3.77 billion, below market expectations, and it lowered its full-year EPS guidance [12] - Philips slightly raised its adjusted operating margin forecast for the year, indicating that the impact of trade tensions was less severe than previously feared [13] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the US wholesale inventory month-on-month change and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [14][15] - Earnings reports are expected from Visa, Booking, Starbucks, UBS, Rio Tinto, UMC, New Oriental, and HSBC [17]
Nomura (NMR) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-29 10:32
Nomura (NMR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call July 29, 2025 05:30 AM ET OperatorGood day, everyone, and welcome to today's Nomura Holdings First Quarter Operating Results for Fiscal Year Ended March 2026 Conference Call. Please be reminded that today's conference call is being recorded at the request of the hosting company. Should you have any objections, you may disconnect at this point in time. During the presentation, all the telephone lines are placed for listen only mode. The question and answer session will be h ...
Nomura (NMR) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-29 10:30
Nomura (NMR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call July 29, 2025 05:30 AM ET Speaker0Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Nomura Holdings First Quarter Operating Results for Fiscal Year Ended March 2026 Conference Call. Please be reminded that today's conference call is being recorded at the request of the hosting company. Should you have any objections, you may disconnect at this point in time. During the presentation, all the telephone lines are placed for listen only mode. The question and answer session will be h ...
Nomura (NMR) - 2026 Q1 - Quarterly Report
2025-07-29 10:04
Commission File Number: 1-15270 For the month of July 2025 NOMURA HOLDINGS, INC. (Translation of registrant's name into English) 13-1, Nihonbashi 1-chome Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-8645 Japan (Address of principal executive offices) Table of Contents FORM 6-K U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Report of Foreign Private Issuer Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover ...
Nomura (NMR) - 2026 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-29 09:30
(US GAAP) Consolidated Results of Operations First quarter, year ending March 2026 July 2025 Nomura Holdings, Inc. © Nomura Outline Presentation Financial Supplement 1 ◼ Executive summary (p. 2) ◼ Overview of results (p. 3) ◼ Business segment results (p. 4) ◼ Wealth Management (p. 5-7) ◼ Investment Management (p. 8-9) ◼ Wholesale (p. 10-12) ◼ Banking (p. 13) ◼ Non-interest expenses (p. 14) ◼ Robust financial position (p. 15) ◼ Consolidated balance sheet (p. 17) ◼ Value at risk (p. 18) ◼ Consolidated financi ...
波动市成摇钱树 野村控股(NMR.US)一季度净利润同比飙升52%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 08:24
尽管全球市场波动加剧,得益于交易及投行业务的强劲表现,野村控股(NMR.US)第一季度净利润同比 飙升52%。这家日本最大投行及券商在4-6月实现净利润1046亿日元(约合7.057亿美元),较上年同期的 689亿日元显著增长。 此番业绩延续了野村在截至2025年3月的财年创下的历史最高年度利润纪录,进一步巩固了其日本市场 领先地位,同时推进其成为全球金融巨头的多年战略。 受美国总统特朗普四月宣布的关税提案引发市场波动影响,野村全球市场部门收入增长7%,宏观及价 差产品需求激增。 尽管全球并购交易因关税不确定性在本季度受阻,野村仍从NTT及丰田汽车旗下上市子公司私有化等本 土大型交易中获益。 LSEG数据显示,2025年上半年野村全球并购咨询费收入排名第11位。 为应对多年业绩波动,野村持续拓展财富与资产管理业务以获取更稳定的收入来源。凭借日本家庭资产 从储蓄转向投资的趋势,该行已成为日本头号财富管理机构——本季度该部门贡献了近40%的税前利 润。同期,野村资产管理规模创下94.3万亿日元的历史新高。 本季度野村还通过子公司出售东京地产项目获得560亿日元税前收益。 今年4月,野村证券宣布收购麦格理集团的资产 ...
野村控股第一财季净利润1,045.7亿日元,同比增长52%。第一财总营收1.16万亿日元,同比下降5%。第一财投行业务手续费收入383.6亿日元,同比下降7.1%。第一财资产管理费928.6亿日元,同比增长2.8%。第一财交易利润1,422.4亿日元,同比增长7.8%。第一财券商佣金1,006.1亿日元,同比下降2.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-29 06:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Nomura Holdings reported a net profit of 104.57 billion yen for the first fiscal quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 52% [1] - The total revenue for the first fiscal quarter was 1.16 trillion yen, showing a year-on-year decline of 5% [1] - The investment banking fee income for the first fiscal quarter was 38.36 billion yen, which is a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [1] Group 2 - The asset management fees for the first fiscal quarter amounted to 92.86 billion yen, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - Trading profits for the first fiscal quarter reached 142.24 billion yen, indicating a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [1] - Brokerage commissions for the first fiscal quarter totaled 100.61 billion yen, which is a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1]
7月29日电,野村控股第一季度净利润1045.7亿日元,同比增长52%。
news flash· 2025-07-29 06:31
智通财经7月29日电,野村控股第一季度净利润1045.7亿日元,同比增长52%。 ...