If you thought our angle on this company was interesting, you may want to check out our idea room, The Value Lab . We focus on long-only value ideas of interest to us, where we try to find international mispriced equities and target a portfolio yield of about 4% . We've done really well for ourselves over the last 5 years, but it took getting our hands dirty in international markets. If you are a value-investor, serious about protecting your wealth, our gang could help broaden your horizons and give some in ...

If you thought our angle on this company was interesting, you may want to check out our idea room, The Value Lab . We focus on long-only value ideas of interest to us, where we try to find international mispriced equities and target a portfolio yield of about 4% . We've done really well for ourselves over the last 5 years, but it took getting our hands dirty in international markets. If you are a value-investor, serious about protecting your wealth, our gang could help broaden your horizons and give some in ...

来源：滚动播报 野村控股首席执行官预计美联储今年将降息两次。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy in China for 2026, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and supportive measures in fiscal and real estate policies [3] - Key positive changes include flexible policies, resilient corporate performance in sectors like AI and biopharmaceuticals, and increased interest from overseas investors in Chinese assets [3] - The outlook for China's exports remains strong, with domestic demand policies being a critical variable for 2026 [3] Group 2 - UBS is optimistic about the continued upward trend of the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance [4] - Structural changes are expected to support the rise of Chinese stocks, with AI and technology being key long-term growth drivers [4] - UBS forecasts a 37% growth in earnings per share for the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2026, supported by strong liquidity and favorable policies [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and a potential interest rate cut cycle [6] - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 70 tons of gold monthly in 2026, contributing approximately 14 percentage points to gold price increases [6] - Goldman Sachs also sees copper prices strengthening due to supply constraints and sustained demand, maintaining a long-term price target of $15,000 per ton by 2035 [6] Group 4 - Nomura expects that the investment boom driven by AI and supportive monetary and fiscal policies will continue to propel global economic growth in 2026 [7] - Despite challenges such as reduced global cooperation and tight fiscal policy space, the AI-led investment trend is anticipated to provide a strong foundation for economic performance [7] - Nomura forecasts stable and accelerating growth in the global economy for 2026, although growth will be uneven across regions [7]

全球市场的目光已投向新的一年。2026年，中国股市能否延续涨势？金价还有多少上行空间？AI投资 热潮能否持续？四大国际投行给出了自己的判断。 摩根士丹利：国内有望迎来更积极的财政政策 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强认为，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，财政和房地产政策将持 续发力，发挥托底作用。 当前，三大积极变化带来信心。首先，政策更灵活，财政货币协调支持消费。其次，企业展现强大韧性 和创新力，尤其在AI、智能驾驶、电池、生物制药等领域形成全球竞争力。第三，资金活跃度提升， 海外资金对中国资产兴趣回升，以保险、银行资管为代表的机构投资者以及散户入市迹象增强。 在科技等关键领域，美国强在算力与基础研究投入，中国则在人才、基础设施、数据与应用场景上优势 明显，两者各有侧重，均构成了未来增长的重要动力。 展望2026年，邢自强认为，中国出口有望保持相对坚挺，更关键的变量在于内需政策，预计2026年财政 政策有望比2025年更积极。 瑞银：看好中国股市持续上行 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)认为，经历了表现亮眼的一年后，中国市场的涨势有望在2026年延 续，先进制造业和科技自立自强成为新的增长引擎。市 ...

近日，我们与野村欧洲首席经济学家George Buckley进行对话，了解他从大学任教到金融机构从事经济 研究的职业历程，以及他对野村研究独到之处的看法。 野村在欧洲有什么独具特色的服务吗？ George Buckley 野村欧洲首席经济学家 George Buckley作为市场经济学家拥有超过25年的从业经验。George拥有布里斯托大学 博士学位和硕士学位，并曾在该校教授宏观经济学和计量经济学。他著有《What You Need to Know About Economics》一书，目前担任专业经济学家协会（the Society of Professional Economists）主席，该协会拥有超过1400名会员。 您拥有经济学博士学位，也曾教授经济学。 是什么让您想成为一名经济学家？ George Buckley ：在拥有学术经济学的背景下，我渴望在实践中运用这些知识。对我来说，在野村这样的 金融机构工作，更是最贴近现实的实践——我们在这里努力预测经济、通胀、债务的走向，尤其是利率趋 势，因为利率影响着全球众多不同资产的价格。 我从事经济学工作已逾25年，其中在野村任职已八年有余。这段经历让我得以 ...

Economic Reforms - The Indian Parliament approved significant bills to open the nuclear industry to private firms and allow full foreign ownership of insurance companies, aiming to modernize the financial framework and encourage market participation [1][2] - The finance minister proposed unifying India's securities market laws under a single code, which is expected to attract more investments [1][2] Investment Potential - These reforms could unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, supporting Prime Minister Modi's goal of transforming India into a developed nation within the next two decades [2] - The Adani Group is already planning to capitalize on these changes by developing a commercial nuclear energy project in northern India [2] Economic Growth Projections - Economists predict a growth rate of 6.9% for 2026, with a steady pace of 6.5% expected for the fiscal year through March, although this is below the 8% growth needed for India to achieve developed-nation status by 2047 [6][7] - The recent policy actions are seen as a shift towards diversification and structural reforms, aimed at attracting long-term capital [6] Trade Relations - India's exports to the US have weakened due to higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with ongoing negotiations for a trade deal lacking clarity [8] - Tamil Nadu, a key export-reliant state, has reported significant losses due to high tariffs, highlighting the impact on local businesses [10] Legislative Activity - December's parliamentary session was the most productive in five years, with 61.7 hours spent on legislation and eight bills passed, indicating a proactive legislative environment [11][14] - The burst of policy action is expected to energize Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party ahead of upcoming state elections [12][14]

日本央行加息已被债券和掉期市场充分计入，投资者的焦点正迅速从单一的利率决议转向央行对未来紧 缩路径的指引，尤其是日本央行行长植田和男在会后的表态。 目前市场预期，日本央行今天料将隔夜拆借利率上调25个基点至0.75%至三十年来最高水平。据追风交 易台，野村日本利率策略团队分析认为，鉴于市场定价已经相当充分，单纯的加息决定本身或难以成为 推动收益率进一步上行的催化剂。野村全球外汇策略团队指出，目前美元兑日元汇率回升至155.50附 近，日元升值动能因加息预期被消化而有所减弱。 对于投资者而言，本次会议的核心焦点已从"是否加息"转移至植田和男对未来加息节奏的指引。分析师 认为，若央行无法传递出比市场预期更快的紧缩步伐，包括可能的终端利率水平信号，此次会议甚至可 能演变为一场市场的"非事件"（non-event）。 此外，尽管本周财政政策与预算案的制定也将进入关键窗口期，但考虑到高市早苗政府在扩张性财政立 场上可能展现出的温和态度，以及市场对加息的提前定价，短期内财政因素引发收益率大幅上行的风险 有所降低。 加息预期已充分定价，关注终端利率指引 野村日本利率策略团队在最新的报告中指出，尽管其预计日本央行将在12月1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Nomura Holdings is actively seeking acquisitions in the private debt asset management sector to enhance its alternative assets business, as stated by CEO Kentaro Okuda in a Reuters interview [1] Group 1 - Nomura Holdings is focusing on expanding its alternative assets business through potential acquisitions [1] - The company is particularly interested in the private debt asset management market [1] - CEO Kentaro Okuda emphasized the strategic importance of these acquisitions for the company's growth [1]

"我们发现，许多东南亚出口商提高了对美出口商品的价格，它们已经把部分成本压力转嫁给美国消费者。"近 日，野村亚洲（除日本外）及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时说。 10月，美国特朗普政府在东盟峰会期间与泰国、马来西亚、柬埔寨和越南等东盟国家达成贸易相关协议。外界 认为，美关税政策对东南亚经贸的负面影响将是显著的。联合国开发计划署（UNDP）的报告预测，随着关税 引发价格上涨，东南亚对美出口总额或下降9.7%。 Varma称，由于美国关税政策，亚洲出口商可能面临一些成本转嫁压力和利润率压力，但总体而言，亚洲的出 口仍将保持稳健，"一个明显的变化是，大多数亚洲国家正在寻找新市场，远离美国市场、实现市场多元化。" 与此同时，中国与东南亚的经贸合作展现出强劲的韧性。海关总署数据显示，今年前三季度，中国货物贸易进 出口总值33.61万亿元人民币，同比增长4%。东盟继续保持中国第一大贸易伙伴地位。中国与东盟贸易总值为 5.57万亿元，增长9.6%，占中国外贸总值的16.6%。 10月，中国—东盟自贸区3.0版升级议定书正式签署。Varma认为，这一协定将有利于中国和东盟国家在新兴领 ...