财经随笔记：黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.12.9）

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming meeting, with a probability of 90%, up from 66% in November, due to recent dovish statements from officials [2] - Analysts warn of a "hawkish cut" risk, where the Fed may signal a higher threshold for future cuts, potentially supporting the dollar and putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Institutions like Zaner Metals and Morgan Stanley believe that the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, driven by central bank purchases, a weaker dollar, and strong ETF buying, suggesting that short-term pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Ukraine crisis is increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as Western leaders express support for Ukraine amidst the conflict, reinforcing the notion of prolonged geopolitical tension [3] - Historical trends indicate that geopolitical tensions typically lead to increased inflows into gold, providing additional upward momentum for prices, especially ahead of the Fed meeting [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows that gold prices are in a consolidation phase, with a small bearish candle formed, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [5] - Key support levels to watch include 4176, 4164/4163, and 4150, while resistance levels are at 4219, 4227/4228, and 4241/4242 [8] - The four-hour chart indicates an ascending triangle formation, with critical support between 4175-4163; a breakdown below this range could lead to further declines [7]