林毅夫：2035年前，中国实现年均5%-6%的增长是可能的

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the "latecomer advantage" lies in the gap between developing countries and developed countries, which allows for faster technological innovation and industrial upgrading in developing nations like China, potentially achieving an average growth rate of 5%-6% before 2035 [4][5][9]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - Since the reform and opening up, China's rapid economic growth is attributed to continuous improvements in productivity and the emergence of new productive forces [1]. - Developing countries can leverage the latecomer advantage by adopting and innovating upon existing technologies from developed nations, which is less costly and risky compared to original invention [2][3]. - Historical examples show that countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea experienced significant growth rates when they had similar technological gaps with the U.S., suggesting that China could also achieve similar growth rates [6]. Group 2: Challenges and Potential - Current pessimism regarding China's future growth stems from concerns about aging population and U.S.-China tensions, leading to theories like "China has peaked" [4][8]. - The potential for continued growth does not depend solely on the duration of utilizing the latecomer advantage but rather on the existing gap with developed countries [5]. - Despite challenges, China is believed to have the potential for an average annual growth rate of 8% until 2035, with the ability to convert this potential into reality if certain obstacles are managed effectively [8][9]. Group 3: Fourth Industrial Revolution and Market Advantages - China possesses unique advantages in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterized by short R&D cycles and lower capital requirements, which emphasizes the importance of human capital [7]. - With over 6 million university graduates annually in STEM fields, China has a significant talent pool that surpasses that of the G7 countries combined [7]. - The domestic market, being the largest in the world by purchasing power parity, provides a substantial opportunity for achieving economies of scale for new products and technologies [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - By 2035, achieving an average growth rate of 5%-6% is considered feasible, even in the face of technological restrictions from the U.S., as many required technologies are available from other developed nations [8][9]. - Projections indicate that by 2049, China's per capita GDP could reach half of that of the U.S., leading to improved Sino-U.S. relations as economic interdependence grows [9][10]. - The economic dynamics suggest that by 2049, the U.S. may no longer be able to impose technological restrictions on China, leading to a mutually beneficial relationship between the two largest economies [10][11].