90%降息概率VS数据真空！鲍威尔收官战，美股先跌为敬？

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the uncertainty in the financial markets due to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a 90% probability of interest rate cuts is juxtaposed with a lack of economic data caused by a government shutdown [1][3][9] - The market is experiencing a "Taylor Rule failure," where the traditional relationship between inflation, employment data, and interest rate adjustments is disrupted, leading to a lack of reliable data for the Fed's decision-making [3][4] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming public, with four hawkish members likely to oppose rate cuts, which could increase market volatility [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is showing signs of duality, with a cooling job market evidenced by a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, while inflation remains sticky with a core PCE increase of 2.8% [4][6] - The potential new Fed chair, Hassett, has indicated support for rate cuts but opposes long-term commitments, which may undermine market confidence in a sustained easing cycle [6][8] - The stock market's recent pullback is attributed to a shift in capital flows, with funds moving out of tech stocks ahead of earnings reports, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality [6][7] Group 3 - Companies with strong earnings certainty, such as Costco and Lululemon, are expected to attract investor interest amid the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy [7][8] - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, but the guidance will likely lean towards a "hawkish easing" approach, emphasizing data dependency for future rate adjustments [8][9] - The impact of the Fed's decisions on global markets, particularly A-shares, is expected to be limited, but the indirect effects through risk appetite and tech sector correlations should be monitored [8][9]