国际糖价远期上涨驱动因素开始显现

Core Insights - International sugar prices rebounded in November, with ICE raw sugar futures closing at 15.21 cents per pound, a monthly increase of 5.48% [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China declined due to supply pressures, with Zhengzhou white sugar futures closing at 5400 yuan per ton, a monthly decrease of 1.51% [1] - The global sugar market is expected to have a supply gap of only 231,000 tons for the 2025/2026 season, indicating a near balance between supply and demand [2] Group 1: International Market Dynamics - The increase in global sugar production is primarily driven by India, Thailand, and Pakistan, with total production expected to reach 180.59 million tons, an increase of 5.42 million tons from the previous season [2] - Global sugar consumption is projected to rise to 180.82 million tons, with Asia and Africa being the main growth drivers over the next decade [2] - The USDA and Datagro predict a potential global sugar surplus ranging from 1 million to 4.2 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, reflecting uncertainty in future supply chains [2] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to increase by 300,000 to 700,000 tons, aligning with market expectations of 40 to 41 million tons [3] - As of mid-November, Brazil's cumulative sugar production reached 39.18 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [3][4] - Despite a decrease in sugarcane crushing volume, the increase in the sugar extraction rate (ATR) has helped maintain production levels [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Sector - India's sugar production is projected to increase significantly, with the government raising the minimum sugarcane purchase price to 3,550 rupees per ton, a 4.41% increase [5] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an 18.54% increase from the previous season [6] - The Indian government has allowed the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar for the 2025/2026 season, with calls for additional export quotas due to high production levels [6] Group 4: Thailand's Recovery - Thailand's sugar production is expected to recover significantly, with total sugar production projected between 10.5 million to 11 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an increase from the previous season [7] - The official start of the sugarcane crushing season is set for December 1, with favorable weather conditions anticipated to boost production [7] Group 5: China's Sugar Market - China's sugar production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach 11.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 540,000 tons [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from both increased local production and high import levels, leading to a potentially oversupplied market [8][9] - As of late November, the number of sugar factories operating in Guangxi has decreased, reflecting challenges faced by producers amid low prices [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to transition from expectations to reality, with key factors being the actual implementation of India's ethanol policy and the final production levels in the Northern Hemisphere [13] - The domestic sugar market is likely to experience continued pressure from new sugar supply and imports, with prices fluctuating around the production cost level [13] - A potential rebound in sugar prices may depend on seasonal consumption increases and stronger international sugar prices [13]