【真灼港股名家】市场观望美联储议息结果，国际铜价近日连续再创新高

Market Overview - US stock market showed downward performance with all three major indices recording losses as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, leading to a lack of direction in the market [2] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the index facing resistance at 26,000 points and closing lower, while overall trading volume slightly increased [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5% due to positive signals from the political bureau meeting and better-than-expected export performance, contributing to a favorable market atmosphere [2] Industry Insights - International copper prices have reached new highs, with an increase of over 20% year-to-date, driven by tight mineral supply, strong demand from the renewable energy and data center sectors, and favorable macroeconomic conditions [3] - Analysts expect copper prices to range between $12,000 and $13,000 per ton next year, supported by a structural supply-demand gap [3] - A report predicts zero growth in global mining supply by 2025, with only a modest recovery of 1.4% in 2026, further tightening the market [3] - China's recent decision to reduce copper mine capacity utilization by over 10% for 2026 increases the downward risk for global electrolytic copper supply, exacerbating market tightness [3] - Despite high prices, Chinese copper demand has slowed, but downstream buyers continue to purchase based on need, indicating ongoing market activity [3] - A projected shortfall of approximately 330,000 tons in the global refined copper market by 2026 is expected to benefit copper prices and profitability in the copper industry [3]