金荣中国：特朗普或公布利好经济消息，金价扩大回落维持震荡回落

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on December 8, with an opening price of $4,197.61 per ounce, a high of $4,218.88, a low of $4,176.12, and a closing price of $4,182.85 [1] Economic Indicators - The New York Federal Reserve's report indicated that while American households' inflation expectations remained stable, their views on current and future financial conditions became more pessimistic in November. Respondents reported a "notable deterioration" in their current financial outlook and a "slight deterioration" in their one-year outlook [3] - The report noted a decrease in the likelihood of unemployment in the coming year, reaching the lowest level since December 2024, while inflation expectations for the next year remained at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous month [3] - Medical cost expectations for the next year rose by 10.1%, the highest since January 2014, while expectations for income and wage growth remained positive [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, suggested that the Federal Reserve may not completely rule out the possibility of action in January, emphasizing the need for flexibility based on labor market data [4] - White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that it would be "irresponsible" for the Federal Reserve to announce its interest rate path for the next six months, advocating for data-driven adjustments [5] Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky met with leaders from the UK, France, and Germany to discuss a peace plan aimed at resolving the Ukraine crisis, emphasizing the importance of unity between Europe and Ukraine [6] - Reports indicated that Zelensky is facing increasing pressure from the U.S. to accept significant territorial concessions as part of a peace plan proposed by Trump [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 1.14 tons, bringing the total to 1,049.11 tons [7] Market Predictions - According to CME's "FedWatch," there is an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 68.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed signs of a downward trend, with short-term indicators suggesting a potential bottoming risk. The market is advised to maintain a cautious trading strategy [10]