百利好早盘分析：降息已成定局 权衡难度增大

Group 1: Gold Market - The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicates an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, suggesting that a rate cut is almost certain [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is significant as Powell's term nears its end, with inflation remaining stubbornly above the 2% target set by the Fed since its peak in 2021, while signs of a weakening labor market are emerging [2] - Analyst Owen from Baillieau highlights that gold volatility is expected to increase as the Fed meeting approaches, indicating a need to be cautious of risks [2] - Technically, gold has been fluctuating within the $4180-$4240 range, with the adjustment phase nearing its end, and a potential shift to a unilateral movement is likely this week, focusing on the $4214 line as a key pivot [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ongoing ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are a focal point for the oil market, with unresolved disputes over security guarantees for Kyiv and Russian-occupied territories [4] - A breakthrough in ceasefire talks could ease U.S. energy sanctions on Russia, potentially allowing over 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil back into the market, which would put downward pressure on oil prices; however, damage to Russian oil facilities has somewhat alleviated concerns [4] - The U.S. continues to apply pressure on Venezuela to overthrow the Maduro government, while G7 and EU may impose new sanctions on Russian oil exports, complicating the supply side of the oil market [4] - Overall, concerns about oversupply dominate, limiting the potential for oil price increases [4] - Technically, oil prices fell significantly from the $60 level on December 8, with the upward structure being disrupted, indicating a higher probability of further declines; support is noted at $58.40, with a drop below that level targeting $57 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices continue to maintain an upward trend, with strong bullish momentum; the hourly chart shows a solid upward structure, indicating a high probability of further increases [6] - Key support is noted at $5.31, with potential upward movement targeting the $5.42 level [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has been on an upward trend after stabilizing around the 48000 level over the past two weeks, currently holding above 50200, suggesting a high probability of further increases [6] - Support is noted at 50350, with a breakthrough above 51500 potentially accelerating upward movement [6]