债券巨头警告：美国信用债市场评级“虚高”，存在“危险的假设”

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO warns that the U.S. credit market is built on "dangerous" assumptions, with inflated ratings potentially giving investors a false sense of security, while the Federal Reserve's ability to intervene in the market is becoming limited [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - The current market shows similarities to the period before the financial crisis, with low-quality companies receiving loans instead of low-quality households [1] - The rapid expansion of the private credit market has led to increased competition among funds, resulting in investors relying more on third-party ratings rather than conducting thorough credit analysis [1] - Regulatory bodies, including the SEC, are beginning to investigate potential risks in the private credit market, particularly focusing on active rating agencies like Egan-Jones Ratings Co. [2] Group 2: Opportunities in the Market - Despite concerns about ratings, the market is entering a "new era" that presents opportunities for active investors, characterized by "aggressive" underwriting standards and wider risk premiums [3] - The current environment requires a greater reliance on fundamentals, leading to more risk premiums, term premiums, and higher absolute and relative yields [3] - PIMCO's investment strategy reflects this shift, as the firm has increased its holdings in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities, which offer significant spreads compared to corporate bonds [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - PIMCO's flagship fund, Pimco Income Fund, achieved a return of 10.4% this year, benefiting from capital investments related to artificial intelligence and the impact of the Trump administration's "Great American Rescue Plan" [4] - Looking ahead, PIMCO anticipates that the U.S. economy will strengthen by early 2026, although there are warnings that a slowdown could lead to increased credit losses and potential disappointments [4] - Regarding concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential leadership changes, PIMCO does not view this as a major concern, believing that the committee will continue to focus on its dual mandate [4]