债市在跌什么？手里的债基怎么办？

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining above 1.8% since September, leading to a total return of only 0.78% for pure bond funds this year, which is lower than that of money market funds [1][2] - The recent simultaneous decline in both stock and bond markets is attributed to low risk-reward environments and ongoing concerns about potential new regulations, resulting in insufficient buying interest from investors [2][4] - The bond market's weakness is further exacerbated by year-end profit-taking demands from institutions, alongside a lack of significant short-term positive catalysts, leading to increased selling pressure [1][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that significant adjustments in the bond market are often linked to economic expectations, policy shifts, and changes in trading structures, with past downturns indicating a pattern of recovery following each major decline [5][7] - The bond market has undergone five notable adjustments in the past five years, with each instance reflecting a re-evaluation of market conditions and investor sentiment [5][7] - Current market conditions suggest that while the bond market may remain in a narrow trading range in the short term, there is potential for improvement in the short-end supply-demand structure due to a clear supportive stance from the central bank [4][8] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the current bond market environment should focus on short to medium-duration bond funds, while maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration bonds until market trends become clearer [9][11] - The concept of "timing" in bond fund investment is less critical than ensuring a balanced asset allocation, as bonds inherently possess income-generating characteristics that can mitigate short-term volatility [8][9] - The introduction of "fixed income plus" strategies is recommended to enhance returns while managing risk, particularly in a fluctuating market [11][13]