海外交易员涌入日本债市，掀起全球波动新风暴

Core Viewpoint - The influx of foreign investors into Japan's bond market is significantly increasing market volatility, with overseas investors now accounting for approximately 65% of monthly cash transactions, up from 12% in 2009 [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors are expected to purchase a record amount of Japanese government bonds this year, despite the risks associated with rapid capital withdrawal [1]. - The current public debt in Japan is projected to reach about $9.3 trillion, approximately 230% of GDP, raising concerns about potential confidence shocks [4]. - Foreign traders have more investment options compared to their Japanese counterparts, making it easier for them to reduce their holdings [5]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Risks - Japan's bond market is increasingly susceptible to sharp market fluctuations, similar to those experienced in the UK during Liz Truss's brief premiership [4]. - The volatility of Japanese government bonds has more than doubled since 2021, as the Bank of Japan reduces its market participation [8]. - The rising yields and volatility in Japan could disrupt global financial markets, especially if the Bank of Japan delays adjusting interest rates [11]. Group 3: Domestic vs. Foreign Investor Dynamics - Domestic investors still hold the majority of Japanese government bonds, with the Bank of Japan owning over 50% of outstanding debt, providing a stabilizing effect that foreign investors cannot replicate [6]. - Foreign investors tend to have a higher turnover rate and are more opportunistic, which can lead to disproportionate impacts on the market compared to local holders [8]. Group 4: Government Response and Policy Implications - Prime Minister Suga's administration is implementing a significant spending plan, which may influence foreign investor confidence [1]. - The government is aware of the underperformance of Japanese bonds relative to other markets and is in a better position to address these issues compared to previous administrations [8].