4000亿补贴难撬动增长，明年车市会跌多少？

Core Viewpoint - The current downturn in the Chinese automotive market is characterized by a lack of consumer confidence and a significant decline in sales, leading to predictions of a challenging future for the industry [1][2][4]. Market Performance - In November, the domestic passenger car retail market experienced an 8% year-on-year decline, marking the second consecutive month of decline in the fourth quarter [1][2]. - The overall retail market growth for the first eleven months of the year was approximately 6%, indicating a stark contrast to previous years' trends [2][4]. Industry Trends - The end-of-year sales surge, typically seen in November and December, is absent this year, with industry experts noting a rare "loss of warmth" in the market [4][7]. - Major automakers, including BYD, have reported declining sales figures, with year-on-year drops of 5.5%, 12%, and 5% over the past three months, despite a significant increase in overseas sales [4][6]. Inventory and Dealer Sentiment - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers surged to 55.6%, indicating a high level of unsold stock, with over 330,000 vehicles in total inventory [6]. - Many dealers are experiencing significant price losses, with 43.6% reporting over 15% price cuts, leading to a challenging environment for smaller dealerships [6]. Policy Impact - The government's substantial subsidies, totaling around 400 billion, have stimulated some consumer activity but have also led to a depletion of future demand, as many consumers have brought forward their purchasing decisions [7][9]. - The anticipated decline in the market is attributed to the exhaustion of policy incentives and the resulting impact on consumer behavior [11][12]. Future Projections - Predictions for 2026 suggest a potential decline in the passenger car market, with estimates ranging from a 2% to an 8% drop in sales [11][12]. - The automotive industry is expected to face significant challenges due to overcapacity, with a utilization rate of only 64% against a production capacity of 48.7 million vehicles [15]. Opportunities Amidst Challenges - Despite the downturn, there are structural opportunities, particularly in the export market, which is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching nearly 7 million units by 2026 [16]. - Technological advancements, such as the development of Robotaxi and AI integration, are seen as potential growth areas for the industry [18][20]. Industry Restructuring - The current market conditions are likely to lead to a reshaping of the industry, where companies focusing on innovation and differentiation will thrive, while those relying on subsidies and price competition may struggle to survive [20][21].