信用 | 韬光养晦

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments due to weaker expectations for further "loose monetary policy" and a decline in net purchases of credit bonds by funds, indicating a cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - From December 1-5, the funding environment remained stable, but the central bank's bond purchases were below expectations, leading to a weakening of the market's "loose monetary policy" expectations [1][4]. - Credit bond yields have risen, with varying performances in spreads; high-grade city investment bonds showed weaker performance with spreads widening by 3-5 basis points for 1-year and 10-year bonds [1][4]. - The net purchases of credit bonds by funds significantly decreased, with recent weeks showing net purchases of 63.3 billion and 130.9 billion yuan, compared to an average of around 400 billion yuan in October to early November [1][4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The central bank continues to support the funding environment, favoring short- to medium-term products, while expectations for interest rate cuts have receded, leading to weaker trading demand [2][9]. - It is recommended to focus on defensive products with medium to short durations to ensure liquidity in portfolios, while maintaining caution towards high-volatility, low-liquidity long-term products [2][9]. - Attention should be given to 1-3 year AA(2) and above credit bonds, which have a certain yield and good liquidity; 9,317 billion yuan of AA+ rated bonds have yields between 2%-2.4% [2][9]. Group 3: Credit Bond Performance - The performance of bank perpetual bonds has lagged behind that of public bonds, with yields rising across the board, particularly in the mid to long-term segments [3][14]. - The credit spreads for bank perpetual bonds have generally widened, with 4-year and 10-year bonds seeing spreads increase by 4-9 basis points [3][14]. - Despite the volatility risks associated with bank perpetual bonds, their yields have reached near-year highs, making them attractive for accounts seeking absolute returns [3][17]. Group 4: City Investment Bonds - City investment bonds saw a slight negative net financing, with issuance of 918 billion yuan and maturing bonds of 946 billion yuan, indicating a net outflow of 27 billion yuan [20]. - The issuance rates for medium to long-term city investment bonds have increased, particularly for 3-5 year bonds, which saw a rise of 10 basis points [20][22]. - The trading volume for city investment bonds has decreased, with transaction numbers showing a decline, particularly in longer maturities [22].