中国银河证券：添加剂行业需求端超预期 龙头弹性空间或更大

Core Viewpoint - The current market changes are primarily driven by unexpected demand, with additives set to benefit from both volume and structural growth, alongside limited supply, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [1] Demand Side: Structural Differences Leading to "Growth Double Hit" - The global demand for VC additives is projected to grow significantly, with global power battery shipments expected to reach 1,447 GWh by 2026, maintaining a stable growth rate of around 20% [2] - Domestic and international demand is expected to resonate, with global energy storage battery shipments anticipated to increase by 62% year-on-year to 822 GWh by 2026 [2] - The overall lithium battery market (including power, storage, and consumer) is expected to expand by 31% by 2026, directly driving the growth of the electrolyte additive market, representing the first "demand growth hit" [2] - The structural growth is further enhanced by faster growth in energy storage and an increasing share of lithium iron phosphate batteries overseas, leading to a projected 64% demand growth for VC by 2026, representing a "demand growth double hit" [2] - FEC is expected to benefit from advancements in fast-charging technology and silicon-based anode technology, with a projected demand growth rate of 29.5% by 2026 [2] Supply Side: Limited Capacity Expansion and Production Constraints - The additive industry has experienced over three years of decline, with irrational capacity expansion leading to intense competition and rapid price declines, resulting in cash losses for listed companies in 2024 [3] - Current profitability and capital conditions limit companies' willingness to expand capacity, leading to a more rational industry environment, while low prices accelerate the exit of outdated capacities [3] - The demand for inventory replenishment from downstream electrolyte companies may create stronger purchasing needs, enhancing price elasticity [3] - The estimated capacity gap for VC in 2026 is projected to reach -16,000 tons, indicating a supply tightness of approximately 15.1%, which is expected to persist throughout the year [3] - FEC is expected to remain in a tight balance, with potential for rapid growth if downstream technologies exceed expectations [3] - Under certain conditions, if VC prices stabilize at 150,000 yuan/ton and FEC at 60,000 yuan/ton, the latest valuations for industry-leading companies are below 12x, indicating a strong safety margin [3]