寡头游戏与同质化困局，奶酪市场还剩多少想象空间？

Industry Overview - The cheese industry in China experienced a surge in popularity due to its nutritional benefits, particularly "high calcium and high protein," leading to explosive growth in various segments such as ready-to-eat nutrition and family dining [2][3] - However, recent signals indicate a cooling trend in the cheese market, with fluctuations in the performance of leading brands and a slowdown in the growth of emerging companies [2][3] Company-Specific Insights - Shanghai Laosheng Shijia Health Technology Development Co., Ltd., a startup founded in 2022 by former Bright Dairy general manager Guo Benheng, has faced bankruptcy proceedings despite securing over a million USD in funding through two financing rounds in 2023 [4][5] - The company initially gained traction with high-end cheese products targeting specific demographics, but its sales were artificially inflated through low-price strategies that did not foster sustainable customer loyalty [5] Market Dynamics - The cheese market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3% from 2022 to 2024, with a market size expected to reach 18.6 billion yuan by 2024 [8] - Major brands like Miaokelando and DeYa Dairy have reported inconsistent revenue, with Miaokelando's revenue fluctuating from 3.34 billion yuan in 2021 to 3.76 billion yuan in 2024 [8] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with smaller brands struggling to compete against established players that dominate market share [12][13] Consumer Behavior and Market Penetration - Cheese consumption in China remains low compared to developed countries, with a penetration rate of only 29.2% projected by mid-2025, indicating significant room for growth [9] - The majority of cheese consumption is concentrated in first-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities show penetration rates below 10%, creating a vicious cycle of high prices and low consumer awareness [9] Industry Challenges - The cheese industry is facing a "Matthew Effect," where market share is increasingly concentrated among top brands, making it difficult for smaller players to survive [12][13] - The lack of product differentiation and high levels of similarity among offerings have led to price wars, further squeezing profit margins and threatening the sustainability of many brands [15] - The industry is entering a period of consolidation, with weaker brands likely to exit the market as competition intensifies and profitability declines [15]