GSK(US:GSK) 3 6 Ke·2025-12-09 02:51Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is experiencing a divergence, with some companies struggling while others reach historical highs. The demand for HPV vaccines, particularly the nine-valent HPV vaccine, has become a focal point in the domestic market, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the industry [2][4]. Group 1: HPV Vaccine Market Dynamics - The end of the pandemic has led to a return to normal growth trajectories for the vaccine industry, but demand has slowed, reinforcing the single-product logic in the sector [2]. - The price of the two-valent HPV vaccine has plummeted, even dropping below the price of a cup of milk tea, due to increased competition and market saturation [4]. - Domestic vaccine companies have seen significant declines in stock prices and performance, with many experiencing over 70% drops, signaling the need for innovation rather than imitation [4][10]. Group 2: GSK's Vaccine Strategy - GSK's vaccine segment is a stable revenue source, with its shingles vaccine projected to generate £3.364 billion in sales by 2024 [6][8]. - The domestic market for shingles vaccines is expected to grow from ¥3.73 billion in 2022 to ¥5.63 billion by the end of 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [8]. - GSK's shingles vaccine is the first approved for immunocompromised adults, filling a significant gap in disease prevention [8]. Group 3: GSK's Financial Performance - GSK's stock has increased by over 50% this year, outperforming competitors like Pfizer and Merck, which have seen minimal growth [11]. - GSK reported a revenue of £24.049 billion (approximately ¥226.5 billion) for the first three quarters of 2023, a 3.4% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 135.08% to £5.08 billion (approximately ¥47.8 billion) [11]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance for revenue growth to 6%-7% and adjusted its earnings per share forecast upward to 10%-12% [11]. Group 4: M&A Activity and Future Outlook - GSK is accelerating its global acquisitions, including a $500 million upfront payment to Heng Rui Pharma for exclusive rights to multiple projects [14]. - The company has entered into several agreements for exclusive rights to develop and commercialize new therapies, indicating a robust pipeline and strategic growth [15]. - The future of the vaccine industry may hinge on developing unique products and maintaining competitive advantages, as seen in GSK's approach, which contrasts with the challenges faced by domestic companies [16].