降息预期或升温! 这会怎么影响港股红利指数

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to around 89%, leading to a positive response in global markets, including significant gains in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Hong Kong stock markets. However, high-dividend assets have shown even more resilience, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index recording a 5% increase over the past month, highlighting its unique value during a rate-cutting cycle [1]. Group 1: Differential Response of Dividend Assets to Rate Cuts - The performance of high-dividend assets in Hong Kong is more influenced by the reasons behind rate cuts rather than the occurrence of rate cuts themselves. Historical analysis shows that during the 2019-2020 rate cut cycle, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index fell by 14.16%, while the broader Hang Seng Index dropped by 15.69%. In contrast, during the 2024-2025 preventive rate cut cycle, the same index rose by 52.10% [2]. - The U.S. high-dividend index also exhibited similar divergence: during the preventive rate cut cycle, the S&P U.S. Dividend Growth Index increased by 11.60%, whereas it fell by 18.56% during the crisis-driven rate cuts in 2020, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's decline of 19.9% [2]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing High-Dividend Asset Performance - An in-depth analysis of the last 20 years of Federal Reserve rate cut cycles reveals that the performance of high-dividend assets can be attributed to two main factors: preventive measures versus crisis response. In preventive rate cuts, high-dividend assets typically achieve excess returns of 15%-20%, as seen in the 1998 and 2024-2025 cycles. Conversely, during crisis response rate cuts, while high-dividend assets show relative resilience, absolute returns remain negative [5]. - The financial sector, which holds a significant weight in high-dividend indices, also impacts overall performance. High-dividend assets tend to perform well when CPI declines moderately and the financial sector is not under additional pressure [5]. Group 3: Conclusion on Securing Certain Returns in a Rate-Cutting Environment - The current market environment suggests that the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut is primarily preventive, aimed at avoiding a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy rather than responding to an existing recession. With the U.S. economic fundamentals remaining stable, as evidenced by record online retail sales on Black Friday, the anticipated rate cut is expected to enhance the performance of high-dividend assets in Hong Kong [8]. - High-dividend investments focus on securing tangible cash flow returns rather than chasing short-term trends. In a rate-cutting cycle, high-dividend assets represent a favorable investment opportunity, providing both stable dividends and potential valuation recovery [8][9].