100万亿Token揭示今年AI趋势，硅谷的这份报告火了

Core Insights - The report titled "State of AI: An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter" analyzes the usage of over 300 models on the OpenRouter platform from November 2024 to November 2025, highlighting significant trends in AI development and the growing importance of open-source models [3][5]. Group 1: Open Source vs. Closed Source Models - Open-source models are expected to reach approximately one-third of total usage by the end of the year, complementing rather than competing with closed-source models [5][7]. - The share of Chinese open-source models surged from 1.2% to 30% in weekly usage, indicating a strong preference for domestic models [9]. - The dominance of DeepSeek as the largest contributor is diminishing as more open-source models enter the market, leading to a more diversified landscape by mid-2025 [12]. Group 2: Model Characteristics and Trends - The report categorizes models into large (700 billion parameters or more), medium (150 to 700 billion), and small (less than 150 billion), noting a shift towards medium and large models as small models lose popularity [15]. - Language models are evolving from dialogue systems to reasoning and execution systems, with reasoning token usage exceeding 50% [18][19]. - The use of tools within models is increasing, indicating a more competitive and diverse ecosystem [24]. Group 3: Usage Patterns and User Retention - AI model usage has shifted from simple tasks to more complex problem-solving, with average input prompts increasing fourfold [26][30]. - The concept of "Cinderella effect" describes how users may quickly adopt new models that perfectly meet their needs, leading to high retention rates for successful models [57][59]. - Programming and role-playing are now the primary use cases for AI models, with programming queries rising from 11% to over 50% [36][40]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Regional Insights - The paid usage of AI in Asia has doubled from 13% to 31%, while North America's market share has fallen below 50% [61]. - English remains the dominant language in AI usage at 82%, with Simplified Chinese holding a 5% share [61]. - The impact of model pricing on usage is minimal, with a 10% price drop resulting in only a 0.5%-0.7% increase in usage [61].