【UNforex财经事件】降息押注偏强但措辞存变数 黄金在政策不确定中走弱

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, but concerns about a cautious post-cut signal may lead to upward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, impacting dollar-denominated commodities like gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have slightly retreated from early week highs, trading around $4,195, as concerns about a "hawkish rate cut" increase the cost of holding gold, leading to a more conservative bullish sentiment [1] - The key trading range for gold is identified as $4,170 to $4,220, with expectations of volatility until clear policy signals are provided [4] Group 2: U.S. Treasury and Stock Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is experiencing upward pressure, causing the Dow Jones to decline approximately 200 points, falling below the 48,000 mark, as previously accumulated market optimism is eroded [2] - If the 10-year yield continues to rise alongside the dollar, gold will face downward pressure; conversely, if yields decline and data is weak, gold prices may recover quickly [5] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer inflation expectations remain stable at around 3.2%, with improved optimism regarding employment; however, many households feel financially worse off compared to last year, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3] - The discussion around presidential powers by the Supreme Court raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, increasing the sensitivity of policy communication [3] Group 4: Market Sensitivity and Trading Strategy - The current market is highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's post-rate cut attitude, with assets expected to fluctuate until policy decisions are made; patience is advised in trading until key data and policy announcements occur [5]