瑞银测算：内存涨价对手机影响多大？

Core Insights - A significant memory price surge is expected to increase smartphone manufacturing costs, driven by a rare supply shortage in the memory industry due to strong AI demand [1][2] Group 1: Memory Price Impact - The memory industry is entering a severe supply shortage year, with DDR and NAND contract prices expected to rise at least until Q3 or Q4 of 2026 [2] - By Q4 2026, memory costs are projected to account for approximately 14% of the BOM for flagship smartphones, up from 11% in Q4 2025 and 8% in Q4 2024 [3] - For mid-range smartphones, memory costs are expected to soar to 34% of the BOM by Q4 2026, significantly higher than 27% in Q4 2025 and 22% in Q4 2024 [6] Group 2: Manufacturer Challenges - OEMs face dual challenges of ensuring adequate supply and controlling rising costs, with smaller manufacturers at risk of shipment declines due to insufficient memory supply [7] - Manufacturers must choose between absorbing costs, reducing specifications, or passing costs onto consumers, with each option presenting significant challenges [11][12] - To maintain BOM cost-to-price ratios, mid-range smartphones would need a price increase of 17%, while flagship models would only require a 7% increase [12] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The cost pressures may reshape the competitive landscape, particularly in the mid-range market, with larger brands like Apple and Samsung better positioned to absorb costs due to their market dominance [14][15] - Smaller OEMs, heavily reliant on mid-range models, may struggle to maintain market share if forced to raise prices significantly, potentially leading to a shift in market dynamics [15] - The forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2026 is a modest 1.0% growth, facing "mild downside risks" due to potential price increases [15]